[Dixielandjazz] The Futurists view of the music business

[Steve barbone]

Mostly for Professional Band Leaders and/or those musicians who are
concerned with the future of the music BUSINESS.

This is from a newsletter written by music industry 'analyst' Bob
Lefsetz. Courtesy of Tom Wiggings and edited by me to remove some four
letter words, and extraneous material.

I think he is right about it and have witnessed via many of the young people
we play before, e.g. that they buy less and less CDs, preferring to download
individual tracks to play on their IPods. (my own kids 38 & 40) included.

But note his enthusiasm about CLUBS. Hard to believe? Well, maybe not. Check
out the plethora of clubs that kids visit these days. The only people not
going to clubs these days are, you guessed it, us old folks.

Cheers,
Steve 

THINGS THAT WILL DISAPPEAR:

Compact Discs

It's going to happen sooner than you think.  What with Apple introducing a
$149 Nano and a $69 Shuffle today.  We've seen this movie again and again. 
Old wave technology holds its own, with slight erosion, and then CAVES!  It
happened in photography, it's going to happen in music.  And the labels are
just not ready for it.  Oh, retail is.  Every music retailer has either gone
bankrupt or is letting its lease(s) expire or is diversifying greatly into
other merchandise.  As for Best Buy, Wal-Mart, etc, it was NEVER about the
music.  They can survive fine without it.  They'll find something else to
give away below cost to get people in the store.  But, record labels,
they're out of luck.


Napster

Blame it on Microsoft, who can never get software right until the third
iteration. Blame it on the major labels,  who didn't see downloading AHEAD
of time and push rental.

But don't blame it on the people.  The people want to own music.  After
all, what's more valuable than your favorite tunes?


Music On Terrestrial Radio

You can't compete with iPods and commercial free music on satellite.
Radio will go talk.  Its local flavor being what saves it from going
belly-up completely.


Music On MTV

Wait, it's ALREADY gone.  Give up the ghost, MTV only plays videos so
you'll give them talent to use in their promotions.  They'd eviscerate
it completely if they could, it gets HORRIBLE ratings.  Music video,
which will be sans major production in most cases, will be a Net form.


Stereos

Actually, for the under-thirty set, they've ALREADY gone.

Music is portable.  That's the main place you hear it, on the run.
Except for when it emanates from your computer, whether through
speakers attached directly to it or via bridges that throw the sound
around your house.

You doubt me?  Check out a dorm room.  Go to a store and try to buy
two-channel, even at a HIGH END shop.


Long Term Recording Contracts

Hell, they're already dying in the U.K.  The majors LICENSE a record or two
and end up with NOTHING!

It's gonna be like the movie business.  Everybody's a free agent, nobody's
locked up for a long time.  Except to THEMSELVES!

THIS is what the Net is bringing us.  THIS is why the majors are fighting
Net distribution so hard.  If you can be on an indie and get paid, what do
you need the major for?

Furthermore, those contracts that are signed will be more equitable to
the artist and clearer and shorter.


______________________________________________


WHAT WILL APPEAR?


Clubs

Nothing replaces the out of the home experience.  This dancing and drugging
to prerecorded tracks isn't gonna go on forever.  People want live music. 
It will start locally, in small places, and grow from there.  People want to
see the acts they've read about/and heard on the Net. The Net is a conduit
to LIVE, not to traditional major labels.


Careers

It's gonna be hard to break someone, but once they've been established,
they're gonna be here for good.  Because the fans that supported them on the
way up, who built them, who sold their story, won't abandon them because
they believe they've got an investment.  It's THEIR band, not the MEDIA'S!


A Ton Of Music

Do you remember the one album, three year, five single paradigm?

I don't give a damn if your album has five singles anymore.  The correct
parlance is five HITS!  You'll release a steady stream of product, building
investment in the band.  Dividends will pay off not only in sale of this
music (as part of a bundle, not as single tracks on iTunes), but touring,
merchandising...  Fans will give you ALL their money.

As for singles artists...  It will be the early seventies all over again. 
You can run a track up Top Forty radio, but you can't make any real money. 
Hell, the only reason the labels could make real money selling tracks in the
past decade was because you HAD to buy the complete album to hear them. 
Those days are THROUGH!


Powerful Managers

Gatekeepers of talent.  That's what the major labels thought they were. In
the nineties all the mid-level managers went to work for the labels and the
company dictated to those that were left, even the big powerhouses had to
deal with "corporate policy".  No more. The manager will be king once again.


New Blood

Right now there's some twentysomething sleeping on a mattress, working on
sweat equity, who's going to be the new king of this business. Actually, a
FEW!  Just like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates stole computer thunder from IBM,
these guys will decimate the old players.  Mainframes are history.  Replaced
by localized PCs (or PCs strung up in parallel!) Think of the music business
the same way.  As something DECENTRALIZED!